Two Degrees
2˚C is the magic number.
Stop the planet from warming 2˚C, or else. We've heard this phrase echoed by activists, governments, and the news. Where did this target originate? What will happen if we exceed it? And is it realistic? Scott Barrett and Anders Levermann share their climate change research to address these questions.
Scott Barrett of Columbia University served on the U.N.'s Climate Panel and now studies global climate treaties. He explains, "The two-degree target was chosen more for political reasons than for true scientific reasons. If countries could agree on a collective target, that target would synchronize the action needed to get worldwide participation." If we have a shared target, then organizations and governments can work together to reach it. Still, some countries and activists have been arguing for limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius because many of these least developed countries are seeing the worst consequences of climate change. Even at this temperature, though, we can see drastic impacts of climate change.
Whether 1.5 or 2˚C, both these targets will result in grim outcomes. Severe heat events will grow 2.6 times worse, plant and vertebrate species loss two times worse, insect species loss three times worse, and decline in marine fisheries two times worse. Ninety-nine percent of coral reefs will die. Many vulnerable and low-lying areas will become uninhabitable, and refugee flows will radically increase. And so on. At 2˚C, climate change will be devastating for large swathes of the globe. In essence, that two-degree target is only a number. The faster we reduce our emissions, the quicker we can avert more climate change catastrophes.
But what will happen if we exceed these numbers? It's exponential. We will launch into carbon feedback loops, release permafrost, extreme weather, and more. "The risks of climate change beyond two degrees is incredibly high," says Professor Levermann at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Research, "In short, beyond two degrees of warming, we must leave the world as we know it" (Carbon Brief). Climate change is a tragedy. People are suffering, species are dying, ecosystems are going extinct, and it's inevitably going to get worse - every day. Your home is changing. It's becoming crueler and less hospitable, driving multiple animal and plant species to extinction. Humans are losing their empathy as they continue with their comfortable lives, believing climate change is a distant concept.
We must not freeze in this stark future. We need action. It's going to be more than political action that will curb climate change. It's the people's will. Every action you take has an impact on nature. Please make sure that your impact is a good one. Together we can change climate change.
